Tesla's Retail Roller Coaster Continues - Model S And X Prices Change Yet Again

They could be preparing for a S/X with a new interior.

This is not enough to even get them through the year. And Elon keeps changing his explanation to try to attract investors. I like what one investment firm said that Elon needs to stop talking about science-fiction projects like the robotaxis and focus on demand. it is too late. The auto market in China is down 17 percent this year. Roh-ron.

That is NOT „significantly“.

Clearly they need sales. Generally it is better to keep the list price constant and use special promotional packages with set time periods to drive orders when you need them. That's a lot "friendlier" for customers, especially those who just got theirs right before the promo started. They just missed a promo, not that their car now has a new lower permanent price. Marketing 101.

Tesla -made the decision to market its vehicles in a manner that has not been done for nearly a century - through Manufacturer owned outlets only - which will be a distinct disadvantage for them when others still use their widespread dealer systems. Yes - initially - it worked for a closed market - but now that the "need" is satisfied - enticing others is not going to be easy.

Model s demand has fallen due to model 3, and model x will fall when model Y is released. They need to make the s/x much nicer inside to entice people to step up to the more expensive models, they also need to do some redesigning on the model S as it is starting to look a little stale. They could also do a refresh on the Model X and get rid of the senseless doors which will help them reduce cost.

If Tesla had conventional dealers, they would have more stable sales

"Tesla is grabbing as much cash as they possibly can before the stock tanks," said Gabe Hoffman of Accipiter Capital. "They're still projecting 90,000-100,000 deliveries in Q2 and they'll be lucky to get closer to 70,000. Then there's a cliff in Q2 because of the tax credit phasing out and cash will be burned in Q2, Q3, and Q4. This company was almost functionally bankrupt on March 31st and this raise will barely get them through the year."
Legal experts have found the investor call's departure from the offering documents strange and potentially fradulent.
Evercore said Tesla could justify its current valuation only with "supernatural growth."
Also Model S and X demand will be further hit by the new MB EQC and the new Audi e-Tron. Code red indeed.

Before Tesla closed their "retail stores" sales reps at two different stores in Long Island) told me that Tesla was re-launching the Model X without the "Falcon Doors" (trumpets sound!). Who knows if they ran out of money for that or if its even going to happen.

Musk is also learning one thing about producing electric vehicles that "need no repairs" and which can obtain "over the air updates" - since the customer perceives them as 'more durable' (whether true or not true), such a perception upsets the natural 36 month replacement cycle (especially for leased vehicles) driven by customers' perceptions that a car is "old" (and maybe starting to be less reliable at that age) - customer cannot be counted on to just get a new one when their old one reaches that age.

Also, for customers who lease their Teslas, the appliance-like aspect of Tesla's might make customers less likely to lease a new one when their lease is up.

SJD - while you are at "Sushi Wednesday" in the Fremont cafeteria can you speak to your friend in the accounting department and ask them was the re-lease rate is for Model S and X? Please update us all. Has Elon phased out the 'employee chair massages' yet as part of the recently publicized cost cutting moves?

The problem is the Germans (Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and BMW) have arrived to the EV party and Tesla's manufacturer-owned sales model has become a liability. Tesla doesn't have nearly the geographic penetration as the Germans do. Furthermore, the Germans have exceeded Tesla's quality. People want convenience when making a car purchase and Tesla doesn't offer it. People also want high quality interiors at these prices and Tesla's interior quality is questionable when compared to the Germans.

I expect Tesla's stock to drop below $150 by year end. Its business model is broken. It has no competitive advantage on technology, convenience, price, quality or economies of scale.