I love cars and admire the design and engineering of Tesla's products. I have several friends who have Model S' and one who has a Model X. They haven't been perfect, but my friends generally love their vehicles.
So, I was in Kansas City this weekend visiting a sick relative and staying On-The-Plaza (i.e. KC's version of Rodeo Drive, I guess) where they have quite a nice Tesla store. On Friday, the store/showroom was not busy and they had a Model X outside, so being a car nut I checked it out. The salesperson was great, the vehicle was beautiful, the Falcon Doors (trumpets sounding!) worked flawlessly.
The salesperson qualified me, and encouraged me to test drive it. So I did. It was beautiful. The one I drove was production number 3,200 or something. He said the major bugs were worked out!
Tesla doesn't have stores in NY State where I live so I asked the guy how he could get me one. (Tesla ships them FedEx/UPS in NY believe it or not). He said that I could have one in my driveway in 60 DAYS!
What? I thought there were deposits and a WAITING LIST. Nope, the salesman said Tesla builds to order if you buy the top spec version, and that they have production reserved for retail customers like me. Huh?
So I did some on-line digging and found out that anyone who wants to buy what Tesla is selling now (i.e. a loaded $130,000 Model X) can order it and have it quickly. This is despite there being over 20,000 people on the Model X waiting list (source:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/01/04/tesla-buyers-who-put-40000-down-for-a-model-x-are-still-waiting-three-years-later/), some of whom put down up to a $40,000 deposit!
This observation was confirmed by checking out some Tesla formus..
https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/if-i-place-order-model-x-now-when-can-i-realistically-expect-it-considering-backlog
So, what to reasonably conclude from connecting these dots?
You can in theory order a base Model X for $70,000, but the only ones you can seemingly actually buy are the $130,000 top spec versions.
If this holds true for the Model 3 (yes, I'm speaking to you 375,000 out there who put down $1,000 to reserve one) - perhaps we can extrapolate that even though Tesla says that there theoretically will be a $35,000 version available, quite possibly the only one available when it is launched (and for a period of time afterwards) is a $70,000 loaded version (again extrapolating off the X).
I wonder how many of the 375,000 Model 3 deposit makers know that they are possibly only signing up for a $70,000 vehicle if they want it soon? The rest would just be providing Tesla an interest-free loan while Tesla holds onto their deposit money. Scandalous?