Some of the 32,000 or so Tesla Model X deposit holders will get refunds and buy another non-Tesla vehicle instead.
Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) crossover (SUV/minivan) vehicle, the Model X, has been getting a lot of attention for its critical role in enabling TSLA to grow 2016 sales over 2015. In its third quarter of delivering Model X cars, March 2016, it managed 2,400 units.
Tesla's official guidance is to deliver 80,000-90,000 cars in 2016. At some point, there was talk that eventually the Model X would constitute half of Tesla's combined Models S+X sales, but that does not look remotely realistic for 2016. I don't know even the most extreme optimist that thinks Tesla will hit 40,000 Model X units delivered this year.
Of those who end up not converting their Model X deposit to an actual Model X sale, there are a few key reasons:
(a) They simply switched to taking delivery of a Model S instead. This happened starting in October 2014 when the all-wheel drive version ("D") became available for order, but the full impact of this shift in preference will continue at least through June 2016.
(b) They didn't buy any new car at all. Perhaps they're waiting for the Tesla's own Model 3, perhaps waiting for some other car, perhaps they saw their budget shrink.
(c) They bought another, non-Tesla, car.
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