The final Ford Excursion has lumbered off an assembly line in Louisville and into SUV infamy.
The passing of the jumbo Excursion – which environmentalists derided as the "Exxon Valdez" of SUVs – will probably be viewed as a prelude to the bleak future that awaits all big sport utility vehicles now.
But that might be a mistake.
While high gas prices have undoubtedly dimmed the appeal of 13-mile-per-gallon SUVs, sales in the segment are expected to drop only about 10 percent this year before surging a little next year and again in 2007, some analysts say.
Moreover, despite drops in the sales of some full-size SUVs, Americans overall bought more full-size sport utilities last year than ever – 1 million when luxury SUVs are included, according to CSM Worldwide, a Michigan-based industry consultant.
And though sales will probably flatten after 2007, the decline may be modest – a drop of 13 percent between now and 2011, or an average of less than 3 percent a year, CSM predicts.
"It is going to take more than high gas prices to pry SUV owners out of their trucks," said Jeff Brodoski, an analyst at J.D. Power and Associates. "If you look out over the next five-year period, this is pretty much the bottom of the trough. We expect a rebound over the next two years. By the time you get to mid-2006, gas may not be as big an issue."
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