Two and half years ago, I predicted (see link to original post below) that Audi would exceed Mercedes in sales by 2011 with the possibility of catching BMW around 2014. We all know that luxury sales took a beating over the past two years and a number of world economies are still experiencing challenges as we come out of the financial crisis. However, Luxury Auto sales have actually rebounded nicely so I thought to revisit my predictions to see how things are turning out and here’s a summary:
1) While we’re only halfway through the year, Audi is leading Mercedes in June YTD sales (652,950 VS. 610,531) and looks to end the year on top. BMW is still no.1 in sales with 689,861 June YTD sales.
2) At their current growth rate, Audi is looking to blow by Mercedes this year and has a good chance of catching up with BMW in about 3 years
3) See chart, Mercedes has sold roughly 1.1 million cars a year for 10 years. In other words, they have not moved the needle since 2001. Over the same period Audi has gone from the 700s to an estimated 1.2-1.3 million for this year, and BMW from the 800s to an estimated 1.3 to 1.4 million this year.
So spies, here are some questions for you.
- Why do you think Mercedes has barely budged over 10 years and is this the year Mercedes finally crosses the 1.2 Million cars a year hurdle?
- Looking at their pipeline, and growth strategies, will Audi end up beating Mercedes this year?
Quick summary on Audi’s line up – They have:
- well styled SUVs that do very well against the competition
- Sensible, efficient, solid & steady performers such as the A1, A3, A4, A6 & A8 that stack up nicely. Others cars that are not necessarily as practical but a lot more emotional such as A5/S5, A7, R8 & other S models
- Class leading interiors, great quality, safety & solid technology - Quattro, TDI, Google earth Nav, Car Wifi..etc.. and more recently “only” one of the luxury 3 “consistently” releasing new models that are lighter than prior models (along with the usual performance /efficiency, size gains)
- With Audi’s current momentum, are they likely to catch up with BMW in the year 2014?
What are your thoughts?
Original post link
http://autospies.com/news/The-BIG-Luxury-Three-Audi-BMW-Mercedes-Who-will-be-no-1-in-sales-in-2020-and-who-s-in-trouble-40094/