The risk of dying in a crash in a late-model vehicle has gone up slightly, as a stronger economy has led drivers to take to the road more often and in more dangerous ways. Meanwhile, a new study predicts traffic deaths will fall only slightly over the coming years, given current expectations for the economy. The overall rate of driver deaths for 2014 models is 30 per million registered vehicle years, up from 28 for 2011 models (see "Saving lives: Improved vehicle designs bring down death rates," Jan. 29, 2015). The death rate for individual vehicles varies widely, from 0 for 11 vehicles to 104 per million registered vehicle years for the Hyundai Accent, a minicar.
The last time IIHS calculated driver death rates, the overall rate had fallen by more than a third over three years. Researchers found that the drop was driven largely by improved vehicle designs and safety technology. Such improvements have continued, but the new results show that, by themselves, they won't be enough to eliminate traffic deaths.
"Vehicles continue to improve, performing better and better in crash tests," says David Zuby, IIHS executive vice president and chief research officer. "The latest driver death rates show there is a limit to how much these changes can accomplish without other kinds of efforts."
IIHS Death Rate Report
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