We expect 2023 is going to come back toward normal, but I still think we’re going to be challenged throughout this year to reach what’s been the norm, Campau said. The norm, according to Campau, would be between 15.5 million and 17 million sales. “I don’t think we get there in 2023, but signs point to 2024 likely getting back to or near that range.”
S&P Global Mobility expects more than 14.5 million new vehicles to sell in the U.S. this year. The revival of new-vehicle inventory will apply downward pressure to the average age growth rate. Nevertheless, S&P Global Mobility expects more than 74 percent of U.S. light vehicles to be older than six years and the number of vehicles ages six to 14 years to grow by about 10 million by 2028.
For now, older vehicles on the road are boosting the U.S. vehicle service industry. S&P Global Channel Forecast estimates that revenues of the U.S. light duty aftermarket grew by about 8.5 percent in 2022 and may grow by 5 percent or more in 2023.
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