In the fast-evolving world of autonomous transportation, a viral X post from Tesla engineer Zachary Valles has sparked heated debate. The post, dated August 9, 2025, compares prices for a 1.36-mile route in San Francisco: Tesla's Robotaxi at a bargain $3.84 ($2.82 per mile, 5-minute wait), Uber at $9.93 ($7.30 per mile, 2-minute wait), Waymo at $21.54 ($15.80 per mile, 6-minute wait), and Lyft at $10.85 ($7.97 per mile, 2-minute wait). With Robotaxi undercutting competitors by over 60% in some cases, it begs the question: Why is Uber's stock surging—up 44% year-to-date as of August 2025—when cheaper driverless options seem poised to disrupt the market?
Uber's impressive performance stems from robust fundamentals and strategic positioning. In its Q2 2025 earnings, Uber reported an 18% year-over-year increase in trips and gross bookings, with income from operations hitting $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA rising 35% to $2.1 billion. This growth is fueled by expanding services like Uber One memberships (up 60%) and a booming ads business, turning the company into a cash-flow machine with $1.7 billion in free cash flow for aggressive stock buybacks. Analysts project Uber could reach $180 per share by 2030, driven by continued autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption and partnerships. Shares have climbed 60% through mid-July 2025, trading at a forward P/E below 16, reflecting optimism in its efficiency gains amid competition.
Yet, isn't the writing on the wall? Tesla's Robotaxi, launched in Austin in June 2025 and expanded to San Francisco by August, promises vertical integration—owning the fleet, software, and data from billions of miles driven—to slash costs. Initial rollouts included safety drivers, but recent permits in Texas signal unsupervised expansion. Pricing studies show Waymo rides already cost 31-41% more than Uber or Lyft, yet consumers pay for the novelty. If Tesla scales cheaply, as Valles' post suggests, it could erode Uber's margins.
However, Uber isn't standing still. It's pivoting to become the "App Store of autonomy," partnering with over 20 AV firms like Waymo, Lucid-Nuro, and Pony.ai to integrate driverless options without owning fleets. With 200 million monthly active users and 12 billion annualized trips, Uber's network effects—handling logistics, insurance, and demand—provide a moat that Tesla lacks. X discussions highlight Uber's adaptability: unlike Blockbuster, it's embracing disruption by aggregating AV supply, potentially even partnering with Tesla. Regulatory hurdles and scaling challenges mean full Robotaxi dominance is years away, giving Uber time to lower costs and expand its $1 trillion U.S. TAM.
In short, Uber's run-up reflects its platform strength and AV strategy, not denial. The writing may be emerging, but it's far from etched in stone—Uber is rewriting the script.
Why do YOU think Uber is rising so fast at a critical juncture?