In Tesla's highly anticipated Q4 2025 earnings call on January 28, 2026, CEO Elon Musk delivered a mix of sobering financial updates and visionary projections, signaling a seismic shift toward autonomy and robotics. The electric vehicle giant reported $25.02 billion in revenue, meeting expectations but marking its first annual revenue decline on record, down from previous highs amid softening EV demand and increased competition. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.50, beating estimates of $0.45, while GAAP net income reached $0.8 billion for the quarter. Despite the revenue dip, Tesla ended the year with strong energy storage deployments and a record $12.8 billion in energy revenue, up 26.6% year-over-year.
Musk emphasized Tesla's pivot to AI-driven technologies, announcing a massive $20 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026 to fund six new factories, AI infrastructure, and expansions in robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots. A key highlight was the confirmation that production of the flagship Model S and Model X will end next quarter, with their Fremont factory lines repurposed for Optimus production aiming at 1 million units annually. "This is a somewhat sad announcement," Musk noted, but he framed it as essential for scaling robotics. The move aligns with Tesla's focus on high-volume models like the Model 3 and Y, which continue to dominate sales, alongside the ramping Cybertruck.
The call's most audacious claims centered on autonomy. Musk predicted that 95%-99% of all miles driven will soon be in pure robotaxi mode, with "very few people driving very few miles in something with a steering wheel and pedals." He highlighted that 90% of miles are already driven with one or two people, underscoring the efficiency of Tesla's upcoming Cybercab—a steering-wheel-free, two-seater robotaxi set for production in 2026 at around $30,000. Robotaxi fleets are expanding to seven new cities, with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) rolling out to more markets. Musk also teased an Optimus Gen 3 unveiling in a few months, calling it "quite capable" and projecting massive growth in this $25 trillion opportunity.
Analysts like Wedbush's Dan Ives hailed the focus on robotaxis as Tesla's "most important growth chapter," with deployments potentially hitting 30 U.S. cities in 2026. However, challenges loom: FSD adoption is shifting to subscriptions, potentially pressuring short-term margins, and global tariffs impacted Q4 by over $500 million. Tesla's free cash flow stood at $1.42 billion, down 30% from last year, but the company enters 2026 with robust cash reserves.
Musk's narrative positions Tesla not as a carmaker but as an AI and robotics powerhouse. While EV sales face headwinds, the bet on autonomy could redefine mobility—if execution matches the hype. Investors reacted mixed, with shares dipping post-call amid the bold CAPEX guidance. As Musk put it, "The future is autonomous."